Dialectic Youth
According to Wikipedia, the first recorded instance of “OK boomer” was in a Reddit comment on September 29th, 2009, almost 15 years ago. Younger Americans, like all the generations before them, need to form their own identities, and often, that means an outright rejection of the values and cultural norms of their parents and grandparents. This phenomenon is an example of a dialectical process in which the status quo produces its own contradictions. This natural tension can lead to a higher level of truth as the contradictions resolve themselves into progress.
Seven Fun Facts About Recessions
It is said that when America sneezes, the world gets a cold. A good example of that happened on August 5th, when the Japanese benchmark stock index, the Nikkei 225, had its worst day ever following a disappointing U.S. jobs report. August 5th was a pretty rough day in the news overall: Hurricane Debby was about to slam Florida, Google lost its DOJ antitrust suit over search, stocks tumbled worldwide, including a loss of 3% in the S&P 500, and Iran was apparently ready to strike Israel in response to an assassination in Tehran. It was a four-bagger of political, financial, economic, and climatic disasters. Bogieman terms like “Black Monday” and “Black Swan” were tossed around. Perhaps worst of all, the dreaded “R word”—recession— reared its ugly head again.
The Real Estate Conundrum
Real estate prices operate very differently from stock prices. Stocks have several attributes that real estate does not: fungibility, meaning your share of ABC common stock is identical to mine; liquidity, with trades of listed stocks executed instantly; small capital commitments, relatively speaking; and utility, you can’t live in your stock portfolio. A family’s home is often its largest single asset and is often a key element in financial and retirement planning. So what are we to make of the current residential real estate market, with its confusing and even confounding signals?
Que Sera, Sera
In his remarkable book “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds,” Charles Mackay explored the phenomenon of crowd psychology by examining a number of examples of mass hysteria, including the South Sea Bubble, the Mississippi Scheme, and Tulip Mania speculations. Published in 1841, the book remains a must-read for investors because while the mechanisms and liquidity of investing may have undergone spectacular changes, the people doing the investing haven’t really changed at all. What was once called a delusion is now referred to as a bias, or by less fancy street terms, like FOMO. Mackay knew then what we’d be wise to know now: following the crowd can lead to ruin.
Keeping It Real
Few things affect economic growth and overall prosperity more than interest rates. Low rates create incentives for risk-taking, while high rates act as a brake on economic growth. Interest rates are the principal tool of the Fed, whose mandate is to promote maximum employment and stable prices. Rates do more than heat up or cool down GDP growth; they can cause bubbles to inflate or burst, threaten the stability of our national financial system, imperil the safety net, reduce the value of the dollar, and lead to social unrest. We thought it would be useful to put today’s interest rate environment in perspective by looking at the history of interest rates since the Kennedy administration.
Don’t Be a Bird Brain
If you grew up in the Western world, you’re probably familiar with the folktale of Henny Penny, which in America we call Chicken Little. Versions of this allegory go back as far as 25 centuries. When a falling acorn hits a chicken on the head, she mistakenly believes the sky is falling and sets off a panic among the other animals, which leads to disaster. As we move into the summer months and as the national election heats up, there will be no shortage of acorns falling—in the form of predictions of doom. The wise investor will recognize falling acorns for what they are, a natural phenomenon that’s just a part of life, and maintain their composure while those around them are losing their heads.
The Rosannadanna Rule
The wizards of Wall Street and the hedge fund managers in Connecticut have a lot of different algorithms and statistical models to guide their investments, but we recommend received wisdom as a check on their prognostications. There is a lot of sense in common sense.
Debt and Taxes
Legislation, like the weather and inflation, is something we react to, not control. When planning for long-term financial security, we can hope for the best and plan for the worst, but it’s not only nearly impossible to predict what Congress will do, it’s pure speculation to predict what the impact of new legislation will be. However, investors should be concerned that the epic and rapidly growing mountain of government debt may become their personal problem before too much longer.
For Retirees, “Buyer Beware” Remains Sound Advice
The long-awaited “final” rule from the Department of Labor will become effective on September 23rd of this year. It will mandate the fiduciary standard for investment advisors who work with ERISA plan participants. Investors should welcome this news but understand its narrow focus and remain vigilant in their dealings with investment product salespeople.
Five Threats to Retirement Security and How to Solve for Them
The dream of retirement is a finish line, a rest from decades of work, and a reward for good behavior—after all, you’ve arranged things so that you won’t need to work again.
Unfortunately, for most Americans, retirement is not a finish line—it’s the beginning of a new phase of life filled with threats to their security and without the comfort that comes in the form of a paycheck.
